Tate it, hate or LIKE it ….. UHURU KENYATTA is the NEXT PRESIDENT (Facts and Figures)

HABARI NDIYO HII

TOTAL VOTES (IEBC) = 14,337,399

CORD ZONE
Trans-Nzoia 231,352: Narok 253,086 : Kericho 290,102 : Bomet 254,405 : Busia 251,737 : Siaya 312,518 : Machakos 445,819: Makueni 300,086 : Kisumu 388,729 : Homa-Bay 331,698: Migori 287,702 :Total Cord Zone 3,347,234

JUBILEE ZONE
Nyandarua 252,889 :Nyeri 357,105 :Kirinyaga 262,715: Murang’a 457,052 :Kiambu 860,716 : Uasin Gishu 318,717 :Laikipia 170,267 :Nakuru 695,879 :Meru 483,517:Tharaka Nithi 155,823 :Embu 226,989 :Kitui 323,624 : Total Jubilee Zone 4,565,293

AMANI ZONE
Kakamega 568,813:Vihiga 202,456 :Bungoma 411,981 Total Amani Zone 1,183,250

REMAINING VOTES:
Mombasa 412,602 :Kwale 173,447 :Kilifi 340,948 :Tana River 73,037 :Lamu 51,830: Taita Taveta 112,219 :Garissa 116,166: Wajir 110,286 :Mandera 121,005 :Marsabit 104,408 :Isiolo 52,617 :Kajiado 315,053 :Turkana 120,345: West Pokot 107,894 :Samburu 56,662 :Elgeyo-Marakwet 134,290 :Nandi 254,788 :Baringo 171,013 :Kisii 414,493 :Nyamira 219,616 :Nairobi 1,778,903 : Total Remaining Votes = 5,241,622

Allocate CORD 50% = 2,620,811
Allocate Jubilee 50% = 2,620,811

Total cord votes = 3,347,234+2,620,811 = 5,968,045 (41.63%)
Total Jubilee votes = 4,565,293 + 2,620,811 =7,186,104 (50.12%)

Votes required to win 1st round = 7,168,701 (50.00001%)
Conclusion:

1. Jubilee can win first round if they encourage their voters to turn out in large numbers especially in their strongholds.

2. CORD really needs to work hard to deny Jubilee the marginal win in the first round by probably making sure that jubilee strongholds don’t vote.

3. A run off is eminent because the Jubilee count is just slightly above the requirement.

a. This is where IEBC needs to avoid the 2007 scenario by accounting every single vote since only a few votes will determine whether it is a re-run or a first round win. (a water tight system free of manipulation is required)

b. Jubilee will be keen even on the vote counting exercise because votes declared spoilt may deny them the much needed first round win. - every vote counts and there may be contention in this area too.

c. To this effect there may be delays in announcing presidential results especially if the count is so close to the winning mark. Tensions amongst voters could be quite high as this is being sorted out.

d. Any slight allegation of rigging may trigger mass protests (and may be calls for repeat elections) especially if the allegations turn out to be true.

e. There is a possibility that schools (including colleges and universities) would remain closed for the whole week of March 4-9.

f. A tentative runoff date needs to be announced as early as now ----- expect another full week of no schooling in April if a run off is declared in March.

4. Jubilee campaigns need to be vigorous especially in Nairobi, Kajiado, Kisii, Nandi, Mombasa and Kilifi to swing them to their zone if they want a sure first win. Right now they are anybody’s take.

5. Jubilee also needs to keep visiting its strongholds regularly in order to safeguard the bloc. The message here should be- “come out in large numbers on the voting day.”

6. In case of a run-off, Jubilee still has the numbers because simply the Amani votes will be split between the two main rivals at approx. 591,625 each. The final figures would approximate to: - Cord 6,559,670 (46%) Jubilee 7,777,729 (54%).

MY OPINION

DPG29/30 (Klist)