Russia’s PM Dmitry Medvedev (right) and President Xi Jinping toast during a breakfast in Moscow on March 23, 2013. The answer to Mr Xi’s sidestepping of Nairobi may lie in Kenya’s political situation at this time and fear of wading into a political minefield. AFP
By Bob Wekesa
IN SUMMARY
- Beijing is probably sending a strong message of equal treatment of countries.
As newly inaugurated Chinese President Xi Jinping makes Tanzania his first destination on the African continent shortly after taking over the reins of power, the high-level visit brims with pragmatism and symbolism.
China-Africa analysts concur that historically as well as ideologically Tanzania is China’s foremost ally on the continent.
Long before China recalibrated its relations with Africa under the Forum on China Africa Co-operation (Focac) in 2000, Tanzania had been the single most significant recipient of Chinese aid ranging from railway and shipping infrastructure to agriculture and the military and hacking back to the early 1960s.
Indeed, Tanzania was the launch pad for China’s support for liberation struggles by African countries such as Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique. Tanzania’s founding father, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere and Chinese liberation hero Mao Zedong not only shared a socialist worldview but the latter shaped Tanzania on the Chinese model of socialism — Marxism, the legacy of which can be seen in organisational similarities of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and Communist Party of China.
Indeed, the then Tanzanian ambassador to Washington and the UN, later secretary general of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), Salim Ahmed Salim, is credited with lobbying other African nations for the re-entry of China to the UN system in 1972, a fact that consecutive Chinese leaders have cited as one of the raison d’être for China-Africa co-operation.
Historical, ideological and geopolitical considerations may well have been the motivation for the selection of Tanzania as the first stop for Xi’s African trip, a definitely much sought after leader on the continent in view of Chinese largesse in matters economic.
However, it is clear that other factors may have influenced Beijing’s decision to structure a Dar visit ahead of any other on the continent.
By coincidence, the Chinese leader was en-route to Durban for the triennial Brics conference and it is probable that it was thought convenient that Xi make the best of the geographic proximity between Dar and Durban.
However, another perspective at play may be that the Chinese may have thought it prudent to have their leader detour to other African countries in view of the emerging gripes of hegemony directed at South Africa.
It is largely an open secret in diplomatic circles that South Africa has been hogging a lot of limelight as the leader among equals on the continent and membership of the elite BRICS is a major source of behind-the-scenes resentment.
It will be recalled that South Africa’s entry into Brics in 2010 was thanks to China’s lobbying of Brazil, Russia and India. It may have been thought that South Africa would represent itself as well as the entire African continent in BRICS and this is indeed the line decipherable from government-aligned South African think tanks.
However, where China is concerned, it is evident that African countries often court it at the bilateral level notwithstanding multilateral instruments such as Focac and Brics.
Chinese strategists may have thought it wise that Xi front his Durban meeting with a Tanzania trip so as not to be construed as inclined towards the continent’s economic powerhouse to the exclusion of Africa’s Highly Indebted Poor Countries (Hipc), where Tanzania falls.
It is worth noting that Xi will wrap up his Africa tour with a DR Congo visit for the same equality in treatment of African countries. Thus, advertently or inadvertently, Xi’s trip speaks to the need for a balancing act in Africa in line with the oft stated principal of China treating all African nations equally.
While Tanzania enjoys significant relations with China of all East African Community nations, it is Kenya that currently stands above the rest in terms of volume of trade and other indicators of economic engagement.
For instance, most, if not all, of China’s so-called Dragon head companies, both private and State-owned have their Eastern Africa headquarters in Nairobi.
The question then arises as to why Xi did not choose Nairobi for his maiden trip. Indeed, when he met Kenya’s Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka in Beijing May last year, Xi promised that he would visit Kenya not long from that date.
The answer to Xi’s sidestepping of Nairobi may lie in the fact that Kenya’s political situation remains ‘hanging’ so much that his visit would be tantamount to wading into a political minefield.
With the electoral process still an unfinished business, Mr Xi would have been hard put meeting President Kibaki, who is very much a caretaker president at this point in time.
At this point in time, the Supreme Court could rule in favour of President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta, seen as proximate to the Kibaki administration or in favour of Prime Minister Raila Odinga who has been in an uneasy coalition with the latter. This may have posed a major dilemma for the Chinese leader.
In the obtaining circumstances, Tanzania will not only reap from its tranquil political setup, enjoy the prestige of being seen as the enduring ally of China in East Africa and indeed the rest of Africa, but also ink lucrative deals.
Mr Wekesa is a PhD candidate at Communication University of China researching on China in East Africa with support from the Journalism Department of Witwatersrand University. E-mail: bobwekesa@gmail.com
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