The anger and frustrations could easily be translated into political rebellion
In a political environment dominated by ethnic politics, political theory dictates that one ethnic group cannot dominate the political life without resistance
As had been expected by pundits whose eyes have been riveted on the unfolding drama in Kenya following the rigging of Presidential elections, the Supreme Court was eventually compromised by the Mount Kenya Mafia (which masterminded election rigging) to uphold Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenya’s next fake President after Kibaki. From election rigging to Supreme Court theatrics which culminated in the subversion of justice by turn-coat Willy Mutunga and his cohorts, there are bitter lessons which observant Kenyans will have to live with as a huge political and social crisis also awaits to begin unraveling in Kenya. Suspected war criminals have taken over the reins of power abetted by political mafia.
As I have mentioned in several of my writings, the corrupt capitalist ruling elite in charge of the Kenyan State machine will never hand over power voluntarily to anybody or any new class which could distabilize the status quo and threaten their political and huge economic interests. On the surface, Kenyans went to elections to elect the Jubilee coalition led by Uhuru Kenyatta or the Cord coalition led by Raila Amolo Odinga. In reality, the real contest was between the Kikuyu mafia cartel that has ruled Kenya for the last ten years under Kibaki and the Cord ruling class which was seeking to take over power for the first time through mass support.
What happened is that the Cord ruling class won elections but the Kikuyu Mafia cartel took advantage of their control of the State machine to rig elections in order to retain power. Ordinary Kenyans who voted have nothing to do with it or anything to gain from the so called Jubilee victory. Conversely, if Cord had carried the day, ordinary voters could have had very little gains but the democratic process could have moved forward. What will happen now is that the democratic gains of the last 30 years will be rolled back with the risk that Kenya might disintegrate along ethnic lines in the next few years. What is the basis for this pessimistic perspective?
The Constitution is a piece of paper
Despite its supposed sanctity, and under rotten capitalist class rule, that document called the Constitution remains a piece of paper as long as its implementation is on the hands of a thieving elite whose pre-occupation in government is to amass wealth by looting tax payer’s money through State bureaucracy. From a Socialist perspective, the capitalist ruling class in control of a decayed system like that of Kenya will always violate the Constitution with impunity as long as its interests are at stake. Kenyans are already witnessing this inclination.
Despite its supposed sanctity, and under rotten capitalist class rule, that document called the Constitution remains a piece of paper as long as its implementation is on the hands of a thieving elite whose pre-occupation in government is to amass wealth by looting tax payer’s money through State bureaucracy. From a Socialist perspective, the capitalist ruling class in control of a decayed system like that of Kenya will always violate the Constitution with impunity as long as its interests are at stake. Kenyans are already witnessing this inclination.
According to the Constitution, Kenyans have the right to free Assembly and the right to peaceful demonstrations. Between the rigging of elections on 4th March 2013 and the Supreme Court ruling on 30th March 2013, the right to free Assembly was violated repeatedly by the Kikuyu ruling class mafia because they were afraid that any public gatherings may “threaten the peace” at a volatile time when they had just rigged elections. They violated the Constitution with impunity because the implementation of the document is on their hands and not on the hands of the people of Kenya.
During the Supreme Court hearings, massive evidence was adduced to demonstrate that elections were rigged in contravention of the Constitution which guarantees free and fair elections. Because the Kikuyu mafia was afraid of losing power to the Cord ruling class, this mafia arm-twisted a supposedly “impartial” and reformed Supreme Court to deliver a fake judgement which favoured the interests of the Kikuyu mafia cartel. In court, it was demonstrated severally that the presidential election was not conducted according to the Constitution but the evidence was set aside, the Constitution raped and power handed over to suspected war criminals who candidated after the Constitution was openly defiled to allow them to present themselves for election. The Constitution has now become another piece of paper and any disenchanted Kenyan is free to tear it without guilt and throw it in a pit latrine because that is where it currently belongs until the day it will be redeemed. The immediate consequence of raping the Constitution is even more catastrophic for the Republic and its citizens. Why?
Elections have become meaningless
If next elections are called with the current mount Kenya Kikuyu mafia status quo in place, it will be rigged again and I can pontificate, almost with certainty, that the election will be boycotted in Nyanza, Western, Coast and Eastern provinces in that order. Next round, frustrated Cord supporters wailing on cameras will, most likely, refuse to register as voters and campaign for a boycott of elections on grounds that the vote no longer counts. With the open rigging of presidential election, and with the fraudulent ruling of the Supreme Court, the ballot has effectively failed because elections have become meaningless.
If next elections are called with the current mount Kenya Kikuyu mafia status quo in place, it will be rigged again and I can pontificate, almost with certainty, that the election will be boycotted in Nyanza, Western, Coast and Eastern provinces in that order. Next round, frustrated Cord supporters wailing on cameras will, most likely, refuse to register as voters and campaign for a boycott of elections on grounds that the vote no longer counts. With the open rigging of presidential election, and with the fraudulent ruling of the Supreme Court, the ballot has effectively failed because elections have become meaningless.
The Supreme Court is a tool of Kikuyu ruling class Mafia cartel
Although I did warn that the Supreme Court is part of the ruling class power structure, millions of Kenyans (especially Cord supporters) believed that the Supreme Court could deliver justice with regard to Raila’s petition. This confidence was generated by Raila Odinga himself who sent signals that he believed in this Court. Raila banked on SC’s President, forgetting that Mutunga was surrounded by “status quoists”.
Although I did warn that the Supreme Court is part of the ruling class power structure, millions of Kenyans (especially Cord supporters) believed that the Supreme Court could deliver justice with regard to Raila’s petition. This confidence was generated by Raila Odinga himself who sent signals that he believed in this Court. Raila banked on SC’s President, forgetting that Mutunga was surrounded by “status quoists”.
With this fraudulent judgement, the big lesson Kenyans must learn is that in its reformed state, the Supreme Court still remains a tool of the Kikuyu ruling class mafia which they will continue to use to rubber stamp their illegal activities in government as the looting process of the State continues. Under capitalism, the judiciary, the police, the army, the paramilitary and the Intelligence (key instruments of power) serves the interests of the capitalist ruling elite, not the interests of voters including those celebrating.
The Democratic process has come to an end
In governance, there is something called the “democratic process”. Put in context in the current situation in Kenya, it means registering as a voter, and on the basis of the conduct of the election, results are announced with both voters and contestants accepting the results as the will of the people. In case of complaints, an institution called the Supreme Court was established to arbitrate. If the whole process is successful, the “democratic process” can then be said to have worked in the interest of the people.
In governance, there is something called the “democratic process”. Put in context in the current situation in Kenya, it means registering as a voter, and on the basis of the conduct of the election, results are announced with both voters and contestants accepting the results as the will of the people. In case of complaints, an institution called the Supreme Court was established to arbitrate. If the whole process is successful, the “democratic process” can then be said to have worked in the interest of the people.
In 2002, this process worked like clockwork, Moi lost power in a democratic election and Kibaki became the President. No one complained and Kenyans believed that the era of election rigging was over. It was a huge leap forward for the democratic process. However, in 2007, the democratic process failed. The reasons for this failure were well understood, institutions were reformed (IEBC, Supreme Court, the Constitution etc) but what has happened in 2013? Elections have been rigged again despite all the work.
In short, the rigging of the 2013 elections has effectively ended what is called the “democratic process”. Next time, no one will contest Presidential elections expecting it to be free and fair. Likewise, there will be no more cases to the Supreme Court because it has been tested and found to have been compromised in accordance with capitalist ruling class conspiracies to retain power at all costs. Any Kenyan who does not understand this point can proceed to stand for election next time and the result will be the same. This is my verdict.
Ethnic politics will eventually lead to Kenya’s fragmentation
There is no political formation in Kenya that bases its politics on solid ideology. All major Coalitions in the political market place can be characterized as rudimentary capitalist contraptions which base their politics on a deformed variant of capitalism. In paraphrase, the Coalitions base their politics on capitalism (the profit system) but in its deformed state. While on this platform, these Coalitions bank on an ethnic support base and this tendency is what has given Kenyan politics its ethnic character. The big difference is that Cord had the capacity to widen the democratic space while Jubilee will, most certainly, shrink it and even roll back some of the democratic gains of the past.
There is no political formation in Kenya that bases its politics on solid ideology. All major Coalitions in the political market place can be characterized as rudimentary capitalist contraptions which base their politics on a deformed variant of capitalism. In paraphrase, the Coalitions base their politics on capitalism (the profit system) but in its deformed state. While on this platform, these Coalitions bank on an ethnic support base and this tendency is what has given Kenyan politics its ethnic character. The big difference is that Cord had the capacity to widen the democratic space while Jubilee will, most certainly, shrink it and even roll back some of the democratic gains of the past.
In a political environment dominated by ethnic politics, political theory dictates that one ethnic group cannot dominate the political life without resistance. If there is a possibility of a democratic change of government to enable members of other ethnic groups to come to power (as in 2002 when the Kalenjin lost power to the Kikuyu), the cycle can continue peacefully, probably until the ethnic groups awaken to the reality that elections benefit the ruling classes alone.
However, if the democratic process is tampered with to enable one single ethnic group to dominate power without possibility of aggrieved ethnic groups having a say in the running of government, conflicts could begin to brew before exploding in an inter-ethnic war that may fragment the country into different ethnic enclaves. With the rigging of the 2013 elections and the imposition of a president on the people, Kenya may soon approach a rebellion against the government by ethnic groups which feel left out of the power structure. The anger and frustrations could easily be translated into political rebellion. This is the ground upon which Kenya may begin to fragment in the future along ethnic lines.
This process may not be an instant event and may be long drawn depending on the level of organization. In the coming period, Kenyans should expect a surge in regional ethnic rebellions with citizens who have lost confidence in the elections like the Luo, Luhya, Kamba and Coastals seeking to rule themselves or voicing aspirations of breaking away from Kenya.
Armed struggle is inevitable for liberation of oppressed ethnic groups
In a working democracy, the democratic process is the most popular method of changing regimes through free and fair elections. Although Raila Odinga spoke about “other peaceful means”, there is none apart from civil disobedience, mass uprising, mass insurrection or armed struggle. Because the enemy is armed with the State machine, armed struggle may be the only option. Once again, armed struggle is a process and given the existing political circumstances, it is unlikely that millions of Kenyans will accept to be left out of political leadership by an ethnic mafia cartel bent on looting the economy as the rest of citizens continue to undergo untold human suffering.
In a working democracy, the democratic process is the most popular method of changing regimes through free and fair elections. Although Raila Odinga spoke about “other peaceful means”, there is none apart from civil disobedience, mass uprising, mass insurrection or armed struggle. Because the enemy is armed with the State machine, armed struggle may be the only option. Once again, armed struggle is a process and given the existing political circumstances, it is unlikely that millions of Kenyans will accept to be left out of political leadership by an ethnic mafia cartel bent on looting the economy as the rest of citizens continue to undergo untold human suffering.
With the rigging of the 2013 elections, democracy is now dead in Kenya while the democratic process has come to an end until further notice. The Constitution can now be torn into pieces because it is a useless piece of paper. Going to the Supreme Court with an election petition in future will be a hopeless exercise. The Court is an appendage of the thieving ruling mafia cartel while its Judges are stooges installed to maintain the status quo.
Voting at elections is worthless because the ballot has effectively failed. The vote no longer counts. All illusions about a democratic Kenya have been crushed. When the ballot fails, the bullet is usually inevitable. These are the bitter lessons Kenyans will probably learn from the rigged 2013 Kenya elections. Anybody celebrating this sad moment for the Nation is either politically unconscious, ethnically chauvinistic or just ignorant about key elements of the situation.
Okoth Osewe
Secretary General
Kenya Red Alliance
Secretary General
Kenya Red Alliance
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