One of the most repeated propaganda during the concluded March 4 polls was Kenya’s sovereignty is under attack by ‘vested external forces'. The hidden attack was directed at the traditional development partners from Europe, North America and affiliated Bretton Wood institutions. The Jubilee coalition constructed and propagated this well organised campaign strategy.
For them, elections were conducted with warpath mentality and were about the ICC. Elections were not about Kenya's interests but a do or die quest to win power and not the country. To make the campaign more effective, they framed and sold ICC as front of ‘western colonialism’. To address economic concerns, their political strategy constructed the narrative that Kenya is now ‘looking east’ with emergence of ‘alternative’ partners such as China.
Chinese economy has recorded an impressive growth in the last three decades. China has been able to lift about 300 million people out of absolute poverty to middle class lifestyle, which represents about a quarter of her present population. Equally, Chinese global economic presence is a reality. In Kenya, its immediate manifestations are in road constructions and retail businesses dominated by Chinese merchandises.
I am not an expert in economics (and I lay no claim to making economic analysis here), but what this local oiled propaganda avoids mentioning is that China’s greatest ally in her growth is the EU and US. To China, preserving these partners more than anything else, is indispensable if she is to maintain her growth. It is not that Kenya is insignificant to China; rather in the present scheme of arrangement of things, it is crucial for China to keep the West firmly on her side. Kenya and China are competing for the same investors from the West though China has a huge advantage.
A cursory look at the readily available official government of Kenya figures is important. In the last couple of years, Kenya's export to China hovered around Sh2.4 billion. This compared to China’s exports to Kenya, which is now more than Sh84 billion. In the same period, Kenya’s exports to the US stood at Sh32.9 billion while US exports to Kenya is about Sh49.1 billion. For the EU, Kenya’s exports stood at Sh361.8 billion against Sh53.2 billion in reciprocal exports to Kenya.
Kenya’s national debt stands at Sh771.7 billion as at 2012. The top five lenders are the World Bank (43.2 per cent), Japan (15.5 per cent), African Development Bank (7.3 per cent), France (5.6 per cent) and China (4.5 per cent). Most of the EU countries complete the top 10. In other words, Kenya’s main source of capital for foreign direct investments is the West. The West funded the highest part of Kenya’s entire electoral process, not China.
Yet this misguided hostility towards West is not supported by local behaviour and facts. The consequences however do not wait. Take, for instance, the present candidature of impeccable ambassador Amina Mohammed for the WTO secretary general. Her success would be a real ‘diplomatic coup’ for Kenya whose benefits in terms of increased global presence will trickle for years to come. However, in real politick it is a non-starter if Kenya’s president and top diplomat miss in the negotiation high table. It is virtually dead on arrival without support from the US and Europe, and China will not speak for Kenya.
On the other hand, upgrading UNEP offices in Nairobi has been debated for years and only support from the ‘West’ was delaying it. The heightened insecurity in the country provides even easier justification for it. It is one of those aspects where tyranny of might, not numbers, matter. To ordinary Kenyans and the business community, the economy surrounding UNEP and its diplomacy is a lifeline. There are no ready alternatives here. Kenya is not about to become a manufacturing hub. Yet boosting the country’s security and political legitimacy is an indispensable bargaining point. Operation linda inchi, which is part of this scheme is substantially funded by the ‘West’.
Another fallacy surrounding this propaganda touches on what is the actual trade involvement in Kenya with both China and the West. While the false narrative is that China is ‘taking over’, in practice, the two actually complement each other in dividing the Kenyan cake. China has generally dominated infrastructure projects and buying raw materials. Yet, the high value manufacturing, agriculture and high technology that employ the highest population including health and education sectors are dominated by the US, EU and Japan. In addition, nobody has hired a Chinese lawyer at the ICC, which itself is a reflection of a balance of trade in services.
Therefore, there is need for sobriety in the country. Yes, Kenya is sovereign, but that comes with responsibilities. This can only be done by appreciating that at this moment in the country’s history, Kenya cannot start alienating itself from the world at the behest of domestic audience. Regimes that have done so remain pariahs. Despite being known allies of China, Beijing has never come to their aid. The challenge for Kenya is to build strong institutions and hold them accountable.
Kenya's future is in attracting high investments locally, not depending on self-serving loans.
Writer is Executive Director, International Center for Policy and Conflict: nwainaina@icpcafrica.org
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