Will Uhuru and Ruto union survive the rough terrain ahead?

President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto introduce the Cabinet Secretary nominee in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Amb. Amina Mohamed to Kenyans at State House Nairobi. Photo/FILE  NATION MEDIA GROUP

By SUNDAY NATION TEAM newsdesk@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted  Saturday, April 27   2013 

IN SUMMARY

• The factors that are likely to cause tension and contribute to its fall and the views of their allies to the marriage
• What are the dynamics at play in the political marriage and how long can the current display of warm chemistry last?

When President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto emerged to address the media after a long delay in revealing their nominees to the Cabinet on Wednesday, there was something striking about the lecterns each man spoke behind.

Both had the words Republic of Kenya inscribed across them and none could be distinguished from the other.

This was a significant break from past tradition and a departure from established international protocol where the lectern used by the President is clearly labelled while visiting heads of state and other officials such as vice-presidents use separate platforms.

The moment on Wednesday evening summed up what is likely to be the most watched aspect of the Jubilee government for the next few years.

What are the dynamics at play in the political marriage between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto and how long can the current display of warm chemistry between the two last?

What are the factors that are likely to cause tension in the union and contribute to its fall? And what are the views of allies of the two men at the top about what in the past few weeks has looked like a co-presidency?

These questions are given urgency by the troubled history of coalitions since the end of the Moi years in 2002.

Direct impact

The shaky Narc and ODM/PNU arrangements had a direct impact on the nation’s politics and, by extension, its economy and many pundits predict that Kenya has entered an era of permanent coalitions because no single party, on its own, can expect to beat the 50 per cent threshold required to clinch the presidency.

Already, some analysts say Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have failed to strike the right balance between respecting their parties Memorandum of Understanding, which called for 50-50 power sharing, and their wider obligations to the nation.

Professor Winnie Mitullah of the University of Nairobi says the Cabinet nominees proposed by the two leaders revealed this tension.

“Before the election, TNA and URP agreed on a 50-50 alliance. But as we are seeing from the complaints about the lack of representation of the disabled and the youth and lack of regional balance, this arrangement presents challenges in balancing between party interests and those of the nation. There are regions where you won’t find strong loyalists of both parties. They should find a way to move from looking at things through the prism of the campaign and wear a national lens.”

Prof Mitullah says the repeated public appearances between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto raised questions about the balance of power between them.

“The President is keen to emphasise that he respects the coalition agreement. This is understandable considering the history of coalitions in the country and the problems we have had in the past.

But Kenyans want to see a President and Deputy President as spelt out in the constitution. The President should realise that he has to put Kenyans’ interests higher than those of the coalition.”

Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University says that the bond between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto derives from the seemingly warm relations they enjoy. But he said the biggest question was whether it would last.

“It’s more personal as opposed to constitutional. The two appear to get along very well,” he said.

Prof Munene said that the Jubilee coalition chiefs were primarily using coded signs to demonstrate the balance of power.

“The President is clearly in charge. You can see that from his demeanour. The Deputy President refers to him as ‘His Excellency’ and the President calls him ‘William’. This tells us two things. That they want to show there is a pecking order and that Ruto has learnt from history. After all, Moi, the Vice-President who deferred to the President the most, is the only one who ascended to ultimate power.”

Kenyatta allies

The Sunday Nation has, however, learnt that behind the scenes there has been tension particularly among some of Mr Kenyatta’s allies who feel that Mr Ruto is too prominent at Mr Kenyatta’s side.

Some say that Mr Kenyatta should assert his authority more and are said to have conveyed that opinion to him.

However, pundits point to certain issues that are likely to severely test the union between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto in future, including factors beyond their control such as the cases they face at the International Criminal Court.

In the first few weeks in office, they have certainly managed to navigate the challenge of naming the Cabinet which was the factor that poisoned relations after the 2002 and 2007 elections.

In January 2003, the seeds of the fall of the Narc coalition were sown when key figures within the Liberal Democratic Party wing associated with Mr Odinga complained that President Kibaki’s National Alliance of Kenya group had short-changed their camp.

One of the main claims was that the Kibaki side had substituted several names submitted by Mr Odinga and listed new names. One of the contentious issues mentioned at the time was the appointment of Mr Raphael Tuju in place of former Kisumu Town West MP Joab Omino.

That disagreement, followed up by the failure to enact a new constitution in which Mr Odinga would have taken the position of Prime Minister, triggered years of wrangling which eventually ended in the dissolution of the coalition in 2005.

In 2008, it was Mr Odinga who faced a rebellion from within his Orange Democratic Movement. Faced with a reduced share of slots after a 50-50 alliance was formed after the post-election violence, Mr Odinga was unable to satisfy all his supporters.

The naming of the Cabinet triggered a rebellion which was strongest within the Kipsigis sub-tribe of the Kalenjin and championed by Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto.

William Ruto also began a quiet rebellion after he felt he should have got the Deputy Prime Minister’s slot instead of Mr Musalia Mudavadi.

Similar headache

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have avoided a similar intra-coalition headache by largely meeting the 50-50 bargain.

But by picking Cabinet nominees primarily from the regions where they got the most votes, they could have sown the seeds of opposition in many other parts of the country.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto also face other challenges in managing the coalition.

Some of the issues which will be closely watched include:

The ICC

This will inevitably be a matter that will remain in the back of the minds of many observers.

With several witnesses in both cases having dropped out, it is unclear whose case is stronger in The Hague.

A scenario where Mr Kenyatta’s case collapses and Mr Ruto’s proceeds or the other way round is likely to exert very serious pressure on the bond between TNA and URP.

Mixed Ministries

Reports indicate that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto will swap roles in each ministry with one party taking the Cabinet Secretary’s job and the other holding the post of Principal Secretary.

This arrangement has caused friction in the past. In the Grand Coalition which ended on March 4, this was a recurring problem with ODM ministers in particularly complaining of frustration. This arrangement remains a potential source of friction.

Corruption

Both sides of the Grand Coalition routinely traded accusations of corruption in the Kibaki-Raila administration.

Key ministries which featured in these battles included the Agriculture, Energy, Finance and Lands dockets.

With key allies of Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta holding those posts, it will remain to be seen whether any reports of grand corruption will drive a wedge between the parties.

Devolution

Some see the top leadership of TNA and URP as having varying degrees of commitment to devolution and this is likely to remain a closely watched matter. The ministry in charge of devolution was allocated to TNA but the docket falls under the supervision of Mr Ruto.

Land question

A traditional point of friction between the core supporters of the TNA and URP has been land. A complex issue with deep roots going back several decades, the matter will remain a key issue to watch.

Will they have the political courage to take some steps to look for long-term solutions to the problem?

Prof Munene says that pundits should not be too harsh on the Jubilee coalition because it is still young and will inevitably make mistakes.

“It is easy to forget that so far this has been the most successful coalition the country has had for 15 years,” he said.