SATURDAY, MAY 16, 2015
Cord leaders Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka in Kajiado town on March 17, 2015 following the victory of Elijah Memusi in the Kajiado Central by-election. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP
From Luo Nyanza comes the moralising story of Lwanda Magere, the mythical mighty warrior whose fabled unearthly powers and flesh made of stone made him invincible in war.
But Lwanda ended tragically when a girl, deceitfully gifted to him as a wife by Nandi elders whose armies he defeated and tormented, revealed the secret of his strength in the shadow to Kalenjin warriors who “speared his shadow to death” as his body turned into stone in the Kano plains.
Going by the Lwanda Magere script, the Rift Valley has been Raila Odinga’s gift to power. Come 2017, the Rift Valley will be Mr Odinga’s waterloo. Here, voters will decide the fate of his presidential ambition.
In this context, a debilitating power tussle with Deputy President William Ruto has the potential of destroying Mr Odinga’s Rift Valley strategy and sinking his presidential hopes.
This supremacy war between two former allies rose to a dangerous level on May 13 when Mr Ruto accused Mr Odinga of dragging his name into corruption scandals, most recently claims linking him to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital project. He threatened to take the war to the former Prime Minister’s doorstep.
On the road to 2017, Mr Odinga faces two stark choices: To be “King” or to be “Kingmaker”. The “Raila the King scenario” where he will fight for the crown to become President is a repeat of 1997, 2007 and 2013.
Judging by the flurry of initiatives, Odinga’s name will be on the presidential ballot — for the fourth time — as a challenger to President Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2017 General Election.
He launched the referendum campaign on a draft Bill spearheaded by his lobby, Okoa Kenya, to amend the Constitution.
Mr Odinga hopes to reignite a similar campaign atmosphere as the November 2005 referendum that gave rise to his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ahead of the 2007 elections.
Further, in early May, he unfurled an interactive personal website and a new mobile platform on short code 20217 dubbed Raila Connect to enhance his interactions with Kenya’s young people.
And on May 13, he drummed up support for the Okoa Kenya Bill and unveiled his campaign issues during an interview with Cheche, a high-profile Citizen TV programme.
DILEMMAS
This “King” scenario poses dilemmas on several fronts. But Mr Odinga’s real dilemma is the challenge of winning back the Rift Valley vote, which catapulted him to the helm of power as Kenya’s second and last Prime Minister after the disputed 2007 polls.
But Rift Valley remains Mr Odinga’s most painful political loss in 2013. Here, his electoral strength has nosedived from 64.6 per cent in 2007 to 23.35 per cent in the 2013 presidential contest, ceding ground to President Kenyatta who garnered 72.22 per cent of the vote in the region.
Mr Odinga has to either recapture the Rift Valley vote or ditch his presidential ambitions altogether. Perhaps this realisation has forced him to seek to clip Mr Ruto’s wings as the regional kingpin.
On May 14, stung by corruption claims linking him to corruption relating to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital, Mr Ruto has threatened to take the political war to the former premier’s doorstep.
Uncertainties surrounding the ongoing case against Mr Ruto at the ICC are widely seen as a possible vent for Mr Odinga to make a political comeback in the Valley.
GAME-CHANGER EFFECT
But the ICC continues to be an albatross on Mr Odinga’s neck. “Raila is an ungrateful man who appeared happy to see his loyal lieutenant in the disputed 2007 General Election ‘lynched at the ICC’,” says Senator Charles Keter (Kericho), a Ruto ally.
Mr Odinga’s Rift Valley pivot must be viewed against the second scenario: “the Kingmaker”. Pundits aver that were Mr Odinga to decide to endorse Kalonzo Musyoka as Cord’s standard bearer in 2017, this might have almost the same game-changer effect as his “Kibaki Tosha” mantra that swept the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) to power in 2002.
But Mr Odinga’s king-making role is increasingly becoming a remote possibility. This is precipitating tension within Cord.
“There is no doubt that I am ready to go for the presidency,” declared Mr Musyoka on May 2, adding that “In 2013, I put the interest of the country above myself and supported Raila.”
A week earlier, a special delegates’ conference of the Wiper Democratic Movement had declared him the presidential flag-bearer in the next election. And sections of Wiper’s stalwarts insist that Wiper’s continued stay in Cord is injurious to its interests and objectives.
Obviously, endorsing Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula as Cord’s flagbearer is even a taller order for Mr Odinga. Mr Wetang’ula’s relations with Mr Odinga have grown increasingly frosty since he disclosed his presidential bid. He is counting on the Luhya “tyranny of numbers” to win the Cord presidential ticket.
“We have numbers and we should ensure the numbers help us clinch the presidency. If, with our numbers at five million votes, Raila with three million votes and Kalonzo with 1.5 million votes we ask, does River Isiukhu flow into River Nzoia or is it Nzoia that flows into Isiukhu? The answer is obvious,” Mr Wetang’ula was quoted as saying on social media.
With the seemingly disintegrating political consensus within Cord, the Rift Valley holds the future for Mr Odinga’s presidential ambition.
Prof Kagwanja is the chief executive of Africa Policy Institute and former Government Adviser.
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