Unlike the US Presidential election where pollsters predicted a Clinton’s popular vote win, Kenya doesn’t have electoral colleges, instead, the popular vote is final, and the incumbent president is staring to a historic win. On the other hand, analysts in Kenya predict Odinga;s worst defeat in his political career. Raila Odinga is staring at one of the most humiliating defeats in his career. More of his supporters believe he has become too predictable, a liar, a source of ethnic conflict, and political instability in East Africa’s largest economy.
International and local pollsters project 55year President Uhuru Kenyatta will be reelected with a landslide during the August general elections. Little known pollster ‘Elections Pollster’ which predicted a Macron win in France projects Mr. Kenyatta will win 58% of the vote against Mr. Odinga’s 38%.
The poll results echoes several others conducted in the recent past by Infortrak and Ipsos Synovate pollsters. Both pollsters project predict Mr Kenyatta will win with a landslide in August.
Western Think Tanks Predicts Kenyatta will get slightly over 10.5 million votes out of the slightly over 16million verified voters leaving Mr Odinga with less than 5million votes. The West warns that Mr Odinga’s slogan of 10million win is a ploy to hoodwink Kenyans to believe he will win. “Odinga’s 10million votes win is a lie derived from our projections that President Kenyatta will win the election with over 10.5million votes in August”, Claims a Western official.
South Africa Based Think Tank Predicts Apathy in Nyanza and Western.
According to Jared Jeffery, senior analysts at NKC Africa Economics in Paarl South Africa, 35% of National Super Alliance supporters are lethargic of Odinga’s streak of fails.
Analyst’s project that there’s a risk that even in Raila Odinga’s backyard of Nyanza, President Kenyatta will garner thrice as much votes as he got in the last General election. There’s a risk that Odinga’s three unsuccessful bids to secure the presidency may result in apathy among potential supporters.
Majority of women in Kenya will vote for the youthful and down to earth Kenyatta. 35% of Odinga’s backyard will also vote Mr Kenyatta since they are tired of Odinga’s losses and empty rhetoric. If the tired 35% of Odinga’s supporters vote for Kenyatta, Odinga will not score more than 4million votes in the General election. He will be routed out of the political arena forever. Even if the entire Luo Nyanza doesn’t give Mr Kenyatta a single vote, he will enjoy 10.5 million votes from the rest of the country while Mr Odinga will not get more than 6 million votes. It is impossible for Odinga to get more votes than he got in the last election.
According to Emma Gordon, Senior Analyst at Bath, England based risk consultancy, the opposition support is completely disillusioned this time and it’s impossible to determine actual political preference of the entire block. Odinga’s last 3 grand fails, the 2007 political violence which he engineered, and the 1982 coup are making a section of his supporters jittery about his 4th attempt.
Teneo Strategy, Dubai
According to Ahmed Salim, Senior Analyst at Teneo Strategy, a Dubai based firm, President Kenyatta would have enjoyed a landslide win were it not for the discontent about cost of living and the narrative about corruption which has been manufactured by the opposition. If he can be able to turn these two issues around to his advantage in 2 months, he will win the 1st round with over 60%. Despite the public discontent, Kenyatta will win the election since he enjoys massive following in both his backyard and swing counties. The jubilee mobilization and large turnout in both Jubilee strongholds and swing counties guarantees Kenyatta a clean win and leaves no chance for 72 year old Odinga.
Political analyst from both jubilee and NASA party know the reality that the no of newly registered voters released by IEBC gives jubilee party a head start. It is clear this time round, jubilee party will win by a bigger margin compared to 2013 and whatever the opposition does to avoid the inevitable defeat will fail.
In the last elections, the opposition enjoyed a slight majority in six out of seven counties marked as battle grounds, but still, that did not stop Uhuru Kenyatta from routing Raila Odinga on the first attempt with over fifty percent of the registered population voting him in office. Today, Jubilee has more counties against the combined opposition
“In only one hour, I realized why Kenyan opposition is bitter with President Kenyatta. If he was my opponent, I would also be scared of him; this man is a great debater and a diplomat. If I was running against him, I wouldn’t have any hope of being reelected because his eloquence alone would deny me another term” German Chancellor, Angela Merkel