Is the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) about to lose the next presidential elections even before the new government has formally gotten off the blocks? The way things are going, we fear it is about to make one or two very big mistakes — mistakes so fundamental that their impact could not possibly be reversed before the next presidential elections.
But, first, a word about voter turnout, the places and the percentages. According to the final figures, which one can easily obtain from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) free of charge, the highest turnout in the presidential elections held on March 4, 2013, was registered in Lari Constituency of Kiambu County. In that Constituency, 96% of all the voters who had been registered turned out and actually voted.
And since Kiambu is the home county of Uhuru Kenyatta who was the Jubilee Alliance presidential candidate, it is not hard to figure out where most of these votes ended up.
In Gatundu South, Uhuru’s constituency, the turnout was only one percentage point lower, at 95%. Of the six constituencies in Nyeri County, another Jubilee stronghold, none registered a turnout rate of less than 92%, with Tetu leading at 95%.
Now consider Kakamega County, the second largest in terms of population and which was leaning towards the Cord and Amani alliances. Of the 12 constituencies in that county, none registered a turnout rate of more than 87%, which was achieved in the former Mumias constituency. Only 81% of the registered voters in Shinyalu constituency actually turned out to vote.
Of the six Luhya constituencies in neighbouring Bungoma County, another Cord and Amani stronghold, the highest turnout rate registered was only 88% in Bumula.
Only 82% of the registered voters of Kimilili constituency actually turned out to vote for their preferred presidential candidate.
Now take the Ukambani section of the old Eastern Province which was heavily ‘Corded” due to the influence of former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who was Raila Odinga’s running mate in the Cord Alliance.
In Mavoko constituency of Machakos County, only 75% of the registered voters actually turned out to vote. The highest turnout in that county, at only 88%, was registered in Kangundo constituency. In the neighbouring Makueni County, another Cord stronghold, only 82% of the registered voters turned out to vote in Kibwezi East and the highest turnout rate, at only 87%, was registered in Kaiti constituency.
In Kilifi County, another Cord stronghold, only 58% of the registered voters turned out to vote in Kilifi North constituency. Of the seven constituencies in that county, only one, Rabai, registered a turnout rate beyond 69%. In neighbouring Mombasa County, which was also heavily Corded, the story was more or less the same.
In the Changamwe, Jomvu and Likoni constituencies of that county, only 64% of the registered voters turned out to vote for their preferred presidential candidate. Of the six constituencies in Mombasa County, none registered a turnout rate of more than 71%.
Siaya, that is Raila Odinga’s home county, did not let him down but, even there, the turnout rates raised quite a few eyebrows. In Gem constituency, the home of former ODM Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo, only 91% of the registered voters actually turned out to vote.
Clear message
And in Ugenya, James Orengo’s constituency, only 89% of the registered voters turned out to vote for their preferred presidential candidate. In Kisumu County, a heavily corded area, only 86% of the registered voters in Kisumu Central constituency turned out to vote, while in Kisumu East, only 88% of the registered voters actually voted.
We can go on quoting these turnout percentages but one suspects that you have already got the drift of where all this is going. Basically, thousands upon thousands of people who had registered to vote in the Cord strongholds did not actually turn out to vote for their preferred presidential candidate on March 4.
Conversely, thousands upon thousands of people in the Jubilee strongholds, who could also have stayed away from the polling stations on Election Day, actually turned out to vote for their candidate.
And so, when the final tally was calculated, Uhuru had garnered a total of 6,172,482 votes nationally against Raila’s 5,339,322, registering a margin of 833,160 votes.
Whatever your views about the Supreme Court judgment which validated Uhuru’s victory might be, these figures appear to convey a very clear message that is this: Not only did the Jubilee Alliance win those elections, it was going to win again if the Supreme Court had called for a re-run of the presidential polls.
Why did 96% of registered voters in Lari, Uhuru’s stronghold, turn out to vote while only 89% of the registered voters in Ugenya, Raila’s stronghold, turned out to vote?
Unless the Cord begins asking itself some of these fundamental questions and then earnestly seeking answers, it does not matter whether Raila and Kalonzo are re-cycled back into Parliament or not. It will lose again at the next presidential elections.
This Alliance needs to identify the real reasons why so many of its supporters did not turn out to vote for Raila Odinga on Election Day. Blaming the Supreme Court or the IEBC will not help much in these circumstances. Ultimate victory lies in the future, not in the past.
Dominic Odipo
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