I
have realized following a few conversations I have had recently that
there many inaccurate conclusions when it comes to the exact details of
what happens if the Supreme Court nullifies the election. I’m not
speaking constitutionally, but in the country. One of 2 scenarios;A run-off election
A fresh election
Given there is already money for it, a run-off is more palatable (although horrendously misguided as I shall explain later).
Despite being the correct thing to do in such an event (constitutionally speaking) a fresh election is unimaginable, not only because there is no money for it but it will cause outrage from those who were elected and are already setting up office. The other candidates who succeeded in being elected will not tie their fates to their leaders. They have already been elected. He hasn’t. They will not want to pay for it.
Also important to remember, time is of the essence. After a certain point, even Raila’s subjects will lose interest in championing his cause and want to move on with their lives as elected officials. Not to mention the pressure to kill election related economic flux and move on with growth.
But if the Supreme Court rules in CORDS’s favour and nullifies the election results in question (regardless of which option is chosen as remedy) several important questions are instantly generated. These are questions which most Kenyans have not really thought of but that are critical to our visualization of a hypothetical outcome.
1) If there is to be a run-off or a fresh election, who will conduct it? The IEBC? Would CORD agree to that after charging them with incompetence in court? (They are not saying this explicitly at the moment but I highly suspect not).
2) Suddenly, we will need a credible body to conduct the fresh elections otherwise the results will also be challenged the same way they have been this time. If they do ask for a new electoral body, who is to constitute this new body? The newly elected officials in office as a result of the supposedly flawed process?
3) And even if the answer to the above question is a yes, the president elect’s party practically has a majority in both the Senate & House Of Representatives. Even putting the conflict of interest aside, what do you think the outcome of these deliberations will be?
4) Also, how long will all this take to do? Every month spent on this process will place the president-elect at a strategic advantage over his rival -and in a very public way.
Regardless of our personal affiliations, there are a few facts we have to acknowledge as Kenyans.
1) According to CORD this election went wrong and the perpetrator is IEBC
2) Fixing what went wrong is not an overnight thing. It will take time to do it right. A long time. Otherwise whatever else we come up with in its place will be rushed and will probably fail as well.
3) The only scenario we have a budget for is the runoff scenario, and it was never designed to be a fix in the event of contested validity of results. It was designed to sort out a scenario where neither candidate reached the 50%+1 majority, but this position being based on VALID results.
4) According to the constitution if the results were contested and the election was found wanting then the next step would be to order a RE-ELECTION. As in a repetition of the whole election. Not a run-off. A completely new election.
5) We do not have a budget for that. It would take time to create one. It would also take time to figure out how to come up with an electoral body/ electoral process that everyone trusts will do the job and do it well.
6) In this time everyone elected and proclaimed winner at the senatorial, gubernatorial and country representative levels would get disenfranchised. The state of economic flux would continue and eventually the public itself would become disenfranchised.
7) And let’s not forget that while the current president would remain in office until a new president is inaugurated, the current president elect would have a lot of influence that would be growing over this time meaning that when the election eventually happened, it would be in a very different environment.
These are realities that we have to contend with and the reason I point them out is simply to show the general public the full picture.
This is not just about a simple one month process. It will involve a lot happening over a long period of time with a lot of uncertainty involved. We need to be both informed and prepared in the event that the Supreme Court rules to nullify the election because it will be a much longer ride than most of us expect. All because Raila is being used by the west to trode on kenyans and disagree with the election so as to force Uhuru to concede an election he won fair and square. Being a western stooge as he is, and an arrogant proud Luo who feels its time for them to eat, will though tantrums and cause chaos in Kenya whilst chasing a personal vendetta an aspiration to become a president for "Luos" at any expense........but funding is coming from brother George. But Kenya has braced its self many a times, and it will always prevail!
Despite being the correct thing to do in such an event (constitutionally speaking) a fresh election is unimaginable, not only because there is no money for it but it will cause outrage from those who were elected and are already setting up office. The other candidates who succeeded in being elected will not tie their fates to their leaders. They have already been elected. He hasn’t. They will not want to pay for it.
Also important to remember, time is of the essence. After a certain point, even Raila’s subjects will lose interest in championing his cause and want to move on with their lives as elected officials. Not to mention the pressure to kill election related economic flux and move on with growth.
But if the Supreme Court rules in CORDS’s favour and nullifies the election results in question (regardless of which option is chosen as remedy) several important questions are instantly generated. These are questions which most Kenyans have not really thought of but that are critical to our visualization of a hypothetical outcome.
1) If there is to be a run-off or a fresh election, who will conduct it? The IEBC? Would CORD agree to that after charging them with incompetence in court? (They are not saying this explicitly at the moment but I highly suspect not).
2) Suddenly, we will need a credible body to conduct the fresh elections otherwise the results will also be challenged the same way they have been this time. If they do ask for a new electoral body, who is to constitute this new body? The newly elected officials in office as a result of the supposedly flawed process?
3) And even if the answer to the above question is a yes, the president elect’s party practically has a majority in both the Senate & House Of Representatives. Even putting the conflict of interest aside, what do you think the outcome of these deliberations will be?
4) Also, how long will all this take to do? Every month spent on this process will place the president-elect at a strategic advantage over his rival -and in a very public way.
Regardless of our personal affiliations, there are a few facts we have to acknowledge as Kenyans.
1) According to CORD this election went wrong and the perpetrator is IEBC
2) Fixing what went wrong is not an overnight thing. It will take time to do it right. A long time. Otherwise whatever else we come up with in its place will be rushed and will probably fail as well.
3) The only scenario we have a budget for is the runoff scenario, and it was never designed to be a fix in the event of contested validity of results. It was designed to sort out a scenario where neither candidate reached the 50%+1 majority, but this position being based on VALID results.
4) According to the constitution if the results were contested and the election was found wanting then the next step would be to order a RE-ELECTION. As in a repetition of the whole election. Not a run-off. A completely new election.
5) We do not have a budget for that. It would take time to create one. It would also take time to figure out how to come up with an electoral body/ electoral process that everyone trusts will do the job and do it well.
6) In this time everyone elected and proclaimed winner at the senatorial, gubernatorial and country representative levels would get disenfranchised. The state of economic flux would continue and eventually the public itself would become disenfranchised.
7) And let’s not forget that while the current president would remain in office until a new president is inaugurated, the current president elect would have a lot of influence that would be growing over this time meaning that when the election eventually happened, it would be in a very different environment.
These are realities that we have to contend with and the reason I point them out is simply to show the general public the full picture.
This is not just about a simple one month process. It will involve a lot happening over a long period of time with a lot of uncertainty involved. We need to be both informed and prepared in the event that the Supreme Court rules to nullify the election because it will be a much longer ride than most of us expect. All because Raila is being used by the west to trode on kenyans and disagree with the election so as to force Uhuru to concede an election he won fair and square. Being a western stooge as he is, and an arrogant proud Luo who feels its time for them to eat, will though tantrums and cause chaos in Kenya whilst chasing a personal vendetta an aspiration to become a president for "Luos" at any expense........but funding is coming from brother George. But Kenya has braced its self many a times, and it will always prevail!
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