By ISAAC ONGIRI iongiri@ke.nationmedia.com ( email the author)
Posted Saturday, February 9 2013 at 00:30
In Summary
More EU countries threaten sanctions over Ruto, Uhuru win
France, Switzerland, UK and the US to deal sparingly with Uhuru and Ruto if they win.
Foreign relations experts on Friday warned Kenya faces far-reaching economic sanctions if the Jubilee Coalition wins the coming polls.
The warning comes in the wake of a growing list of Western countries uncomfortable with the candidature of Jubilee Coalition leaders who are facing charges at the ICC grew.
France on Friday joined the US and Britain in the debate on the likely outcome of the elections when its envoy said Paris backed the European Union stand on the consequences of the Jubilee Coalition forming the next government.
Head of Civil Service Francis Kimemia, however, said Kenya would seek clarification from the US on the “contradictions” regarding future engagements.
On Friday, head of University of Nairobi’s Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies Maria Nzomo described recent diplomatic statements on the coming elections as thinly-veiled threats to pass a message to Kenyans against electing leaders the US foreign policy may not favour.
She said the clarification by Assistant Secretary of State Johnie Carson on an earlier “friendly” statement by President Obama might have been sanctioned by the State Department due to a misinterpretation of the message on the Kenyan elections.
“Obama was talking as the President and his speeches are regulated by certain restrictions. Mr Carson doesn’t have these restrictions. It is diplomatically clear that the US realised there was a need to clarify the President’s message,” said Prof Nzomo.
President Obama had on Wednesday made a general statement that his government would not endorse any candidate in the presidential race and called for peaceful elections.
Prof Nzomo said minimum sanctions ranging from travel bans to serious economic restrictions by the US government might be slapped on Kenya because of its strict foreign policy that does not tolerate engagement with individuals facing crimes such as those faced by the Jubilee leaders Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.
“They may do to us what they are doing to the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe. This may also influence action by their allies such as Britain, France and Germany among others,” she said.
Prof Nzomo, a career diplomat, warned that President Obama’s government may also resort to cooling off its diplomatic relations with Kenya by applying “snubbing tactics” as a stepping stone to much more severe sanctions if elections failed to capture the anticipated international expectations.
She, however, noted that many voters might not pay attention to the diplomacy debate.
Prof Philip Nyinguro, an international relations lecturer at the University of Nairobi, described as misleading the perception that Mr Carson’s statement might have contradicted President Obama’s position.
“The US government works in synergy and to imagine that a statement of the world’s most powerful President can be clarified or contradicted is a mistake,” Prof Nyinguro said.
He, however, said the rush to make statements on the Kenyan electoral situation by world powers might have precipitated by genuine fears that an Uhuru-Ruto win in the coming elections was becoming a reality.
“These statements may be coming now because of some information probably available within the State Department warning of a possible Uhuru Kenyatta win and they may be aimed at stopping such a possibility,” he said.
Political scientist Joshua Kivuva said Kenyans should expect more diplomatic warnings.
“A county headed by suspects is very different from a country headed by Nelson Mandela,” he said.
Speaking in Kisumu, French ambassador to Kenya Etienne de Poncins said: “Our position is that we only have essential contact with somebody who is indicted by the ICC; it is a well-known position, same as that of the British.”
While stating that Kenyans had the right to choose their leaders, Mr Poncins maintained that France would adhere to the Rome Statute.
“Our policy is to limit contact only to the essentials,” he said.
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