Saba Saba rally two-way dilemma

July 2, 2014

By Kipkoech Komugor @kkomugor and Victor Raballa @@victorraballa and Mercy Mwai

The Cord coalition and the Government are both deeply pre-occupied with the Saba Saba (July 7) day that has been saturated with tension by the Opposition call for a rally that could end up in chaos. Cord leader Raila Odinga who is adamant the coalition will hold the much hyped rally in Nairobi on Monday July 7, faces severe dilemma of what could come of his campaign for dialogue once Saba Saba passes, given that the steam that had preceded his return from the US on May 31 has largely evaporated.

On the government side, while President Uhuru Kenyatta has insisted the State would not be in involved in any talks organised outside the existing constitutional structures, highly ranked security sources confide that the threats of a ‘storm’ by Raila are causing a silent state of preparedness by the security machinery. “There is no turning back. We assure Kenyans that the rally is on,” Raila told the media yesterday at Orange House.

But as the day approaches, both the Government and the Opposition are ruminating on what the success or failure of Saba Saba could mean for the country and the political fortunes of the leaders. Analysts say while Raila evaluates the significance of Saba Saba on Cord’s and his future political prospects, President Uhuru looks at what the events of the day could mean for his 15-month-old administration.

For the government, while there have been calls for a ban on the Saba Saba rally, the State is said to be weighing the implications of such an act which could spur the opposition to react and regain some lost mileage. The flip-side is the political and security implications of allowing it to go on. Outlawed militia Interior Cabinet Secretary Joseph ole Lenku has insisted the Government was aware of some schemes to use certain outlawed militia gangs to disrupt peace.

“We are closely monitoring the events as they unfold, but we are fully aware of the scheme to destabilise the government,” said Lenku. Even as he sticks to his demands, Raila is facing growing opposition not just from Jubilee but also within Cord and even in his ODM party. Yesterday, Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero maintained his opposition to the Cord rallies, saying they only serve to create an environment that is not conducive for investment.

Other Cord leaders who have dissociated themselves from the rallies include Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua, Tana River Governor Hussein Dado, Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir, Nakuru Town East Samuel Arama, Wiper Chairman David Musila and several Wiper MPs from Ukambani. Also seen to have grown lukewarm towards the Raila push is his co-principal in Cord, Kalonzo Musyoka.

Speaking to the People Daily on Monday evening, Mutua termed the rallies “unnecessary”adding that they had the potential to tear apart the “delicate national fabric.” “The ‘Uhuru must go calls’ are not sensible. Yes, the country has problems but let us not have rallies that can bring about instability in the country. It will set a bad precedent if we do not give those who have been elected room to deliver,” he said. But Raila yesterday denied there was division in Cord over Saba Saba.

“I want to assure Kenyans that we are united as Wiper, Ford Kenya and ODM. The fact that some members could be having divergent views does not mean that there is disagreement in Cord,” he said during the Orange House briefing. He called on security agencies to provide adequate security and sufficient surveillance to ensure that criminal elements do not infiltrate and take advantage of the function. Wiper leader Kalonzo who had been missing in most of Cord’s rallies was present during the briefing as was co-principal Moses Wetang’ula.

Ulterior motives At the burial of former Chief of General Staff Jackson Mulinge in Kathiani, Machakos, last Saturday, Kalonzo did not to accompany Raila who left early for Ntulele, Narok where one of the series of rallies organised by Cord was being held. During the burial ceremony also attended by President Kenyatta, former President Moi, Kalonzo sought to convince the President that the Opposition had no ulterior motives in calling for national dialogue. Other Cord MPs who have voiced opposition to Saba Saba are Joseph Nkaissery (Kajiado Central), Richard Onyonka (Kitutu Chache South) and Manson Nyamweya (South Mugirango).