By Oscar Obonyo
KENYA: At the height of the infamous political impasse in 2008, Prime Minister Raila Odinga commented that it was not his birthright to be President.
Raila hilariously teased that he could after all retire to the expansive Kibera slum in his former Lang’ata Constituency and sell mandazi for a living.
Five years later, Raila finds himself in another post-election dilemma and some may be tempted to ask whether that mandazi moment is finally here. A similar question is bound to be asked of his running mate on the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) ticket, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, who before teaming up with Raila indicated he would retire to his Tseikuru rural village in Kitui County, “to take care of my goats” if he lost the elections.
Prof Macharia Munene, who teaches History and International Relations at the United States International University - Kenya, argues that the Supreme Court ruling in favour of the IEBC position could well break or rejuvenate political careers of the CORD duo.
“It will all depend on their personal dispositions. They can stay relevant on the political scene and Kenyan politics if they accept the final judgement and go back to the drawing board to scheme a comeback in the same way the President-elect did after losing to Mwai Kibaki of the Narc Coalition in 2002,” advises the historian.
Not hungry
Noting that Raila and Kalonzo are not hungry or poor Kenyans, Mr Munene observes that the two can afford to take a three-month holiday overseas to reflect on their performance in the General Election. According to Munene, the CORD pair can afford a five-year absence from the scene and remerge as a more formidable team in 2017. “But they can also become politically irrelevant if they lose their heads and become grumpy or stage open protests and hostility against the Uhuru Government. The moment they take that dangerous path, then it may well be over for them,” says Munene.
Reached for comment, the PM’s official spokesman Dennis Onyango was tactical. He told The Standard On Sunday that he did not wish to pre-empt or speculate on Raila’s next move hours before such an important decision.
“The PM has all along been fully prepared for both scenarios — a win or a loss of his election petition. And he will address the nation after the ruling by the Supreme Court, where he will personally and adequately address such concerns as to his next plan of action,” remarked Mr Onyango.
Hands full
Regarding Kalonzo’s next step, his official spokesman Kaplich Barsito, revealed that the outgoing VP would remain politically active by revamping his Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) party across the country. Kalonzo, said the aide, will focus his energies on strengthening the Wiper party and the CORD coalition with a view to ensuring they keep the Uhuru-led Government in check.
Besides political engagement, Mr Kaplich observes that his boss will have his hands full: “Owing to his political career spanning nearly three decades, the VP has created many international contacts, which will prove handy in keeping him pre-occupied. He also has the Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation – a very noble programme – to run, not to forget that as a professional lawyer, he may be tempted to re-start practising.”
In 2007, Raila and Kalonzo ran an electrifying campaign controversially finishing second and third in a highly discredited and disputed presidential poll. Incidentally, the duo had initially teamed up in the original Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya.
There is no denying that the loss of the elections by the pair to President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta and deputy President-elect William Ruto is a big blow to the political careers of Raila and Kalonzo. Munene particularly regrets the two are of advanced age and have lost to a younger Uhuru-Ruto pair: “This type of scenario is not favourable to them even as they possibly plot a comeback, because age is not on their side.”
Nonetheless, between the two leaders, Munene opines that Kalonzo has a more realistic chance of bouncing back to active politics than Raila, considering that he is the younger one of the two and has ran for presidency only once, unlike Raila who has contested three times. “The only challenge for the outgoing VP is that, unlike the PM, he is more dependent on the support of other political players. He will therefore have to do a lot of legwork in striking the right alliances to get the necessary numbers for his presidential bid,” says the don.
Owing to their political experience and visibility beyond Kenya, Munene observes that Raila and Kalonzo are well respected and connected African statesmen, who can easily get a soft landing within the United Nations or African Union circles. He gives the examples of former UN Secretary General, Dr Kofi Annan, and former presidents, Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania, as among those honoured with plum assignments by the two bodies.
Separately, Kalonzo’s spokesman has informed The Standard On Sunday that the CORD leaders would now have to convene a meeting to chart the way forward on the political management of the CORD affiliate parties in the National Assembly and Senate.
“With the CORD leaders, Prime Minister and Vice President, now out of the picture, a working formula will be arrived at with regard to how the coalition now proceeds with activity in both houses. Such a decision will be arrived at soon,” said Kaplich.
Tall order
In the meantime, the exit of Raila and Kalonzo is expected to generate political competition in their separate Luo-Nyanza and Ukambani political backyards, as new leaders scramble to fill the vacuum left by two of the country’s outgoing top three political leaders, minus President Kibaki.
Already the names of Senators James Orengo (Siaya) and Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu) are among those being mentioned as possible successors of Raila, who has influenced Luo Nyanza politics for the last two decades.
Also on the lips of observers is the newly-elected Nairobi Governor Dr Evans Kidero. Apparently, the name of Raila’s elder brother, Oburu Oginga, who lost the bid to be Governor of Siaya County but who was nominated to the National Assembly, does not feature.
From Ukambani, outgoing Water Minister Charity Ngilu is expected to be the primary beneficiary of Kalonzo’s exit. The former Kitui Central MP, who is one of the principals in the Uhuru-led Jubilee Coalition, is expected to be nominated for the position of Cabinet secretary.
However, it may prove a tall order for Ngilu, who was trounced by CORD’s David Musila in her election bid for the Kitui Senate seat, to offer alternative political leadership. Musila and fellow senators, Mutula Kilonzo (Makueni) and Johnston Muthama (Machakos) lead the park among possible Kalonzo successors.
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