The elections were not rigged, here is what RAO wants

I just don't buy the theory that there was a grand scheme to rig elections and indeed, as someone else has mentioned, ODM has now fully blasted its propaganda machine. The aim, apart from completely discrediting IEBC and its chairman, is to make it "so convoluted that anyone can have a theory but no one has the facts". In fact CORD's petition does not point to a grand scheme but is consistent with tallying errors that were not premeditated.

There are several inconsistencies that sink this 'grand scheme' theory being propagated by ODM and affiliated civil society groups including:


1. Did the massive rigging happen right under the noses of international observers (who deemed the elections free and fair), political party agents and RAO himself who controls part of the government?

2. The issue about 'massive fraud' is only now coming to light. During the election week, both CORD and Jubilee raised concerns about the tallying process but no party, including ODM, suggested fraud to the scale that is now being implied. With absolutely no evidence I may add. Even CORD's petition does not touch on these grand theories.

3. There has been a lot of controversy surrounding Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers but as contained in yesterday's DN opinion article. The author (I can't remember his name) argued that the GEMA and Kalenjin blocks makes up approx 30% and 17% of electoral votes in Kenya respectively. The author argued along the same lines as Ngunyi that any candidate that runs with the support of these two blocks is almost unbeatable. We saw a case of Kiambu County delivering more votes for Uhuru than Raila got in the whole of the former coast province. It is therefore irrelevant that Raila won in 6 provinces out of 8. The election results are very consistent with these percentages.

Could Raila have won?
“It was a statistical impossibility. Between March 4th – March 7th, Raila Odinga was consistently stuck at 43/44% while Uhuru stayed at 53%. Musalia was stuck at 2.8% while the margin between Uhuru and Raila remained at 600,000-700,000 votes. This was impossible considering that results were coming in randomly from all over Kenya. Yet these figures remained consistent”.

Why is the above a statistical impossibility? A candidate's support cannot hover around a certain percentage? How about Uhuru leading Raila by 600k - 700k? That a lot of play, is it not? I would even question whether the quotation is a true reflection of what was happening. I recall Raila leading Uhuru at some point.

Until recent days, I have been of the opinion that a run off would be the best outcome to settle this thing conclusively. But now I have my doubts. Raila Odinga will accept nothing less than victory. ODM is already suggesting that IEBC is not credible. Kajwang recently stated that IEBC should be disbanded and UN staff invited to run the next round of elections. For a run off to be credible, in the eyes of CORD, we will need to create a new electoral commission, carry out fresh voter registration and then finally have elections. Think about the time-frame.

It was amusing to hear the PM talk about the Solomonic "baby". RAO is in fact the fake mother who is enthusiastically asking for the baby to be split. What RAO and ODM are aiming for is not a run off. They know they will face the same tyranny of numbers and get a second whopping. Instead they are aiming to stall this process through confusion and propaganda until such a time when we will be forced into another coalition government. It's now all up to the Supreme Court to end this madness.

History has it that Raila has never conceded in any democratically held elections be it at the party level or at the national level. Let me jog your memory a little bit

After the 1992 General elections and after his party candidate who was also his father came in a distant fourth -Raila then the director of elections in FORD-K disputed and rejected the results. He routed the idea on 1 million man match to State House to Matiba but Matiba opted the Courts’ way.

In 1994 during the tussle over FORD -K leadership after having lost to Wamalwa Kijana in a free and fair party elections, Raila precipitated a tribal split and left with a sizeable number of Luo Mps to NDP.

In 1997 General Elections, Raila came in a distant 3rd and thereafter did a press conference refusing to accept election results and calling for mass action.

In the run-up to 2002 General Elections and after dissolving his party NDP to merge with KANU after sensing defeat in vying for the KANU presidential nominee position he refused to accept the mode of nomination and left KANU for NARC

No need to elaborate how he was a thorn in the flesh in his party NARC from 2003 till 2007 - If this isn’t stubbornness then what is ?

The most famous refusal to accept Presidential results outcome was of course the 2007 General Elections where he called for Mass action which led to post election violence.

In 2013 elections looking at his past experience we were sure and even predicted to that effect that if Raila was beaten by Uhuru he won’t concede and boy oh boy did he disappoint?

Further we are predicting that he will refuse to accept Supreme Court’s ruling, don’t be blinded by his statements that he will respect and abide by the ruling didn’t he talk of the same on IEBC , didn’t he make press advertisements saying if beaten he will concede.

Raila is on record saying he respects and has confidence with IEBC and its chairman Isaak Hassan before the elections but when he lost, the narrative changed, why so? What is constant is Raila when beaten can never accept to concede in any democratically held elections.