POLITICALLY CORRECT: Jubilee should spare Raila another defeat

PHOTO | MACHARIA MWANGI | FILE Cord leader Raila Odinga arrives for the alliance’s retreat at the Great Rift Valley Lodge in Naivasha on April 14, 2013.  NATION MEDIA GROUP

In Summary

• Fresh from its unquestioned electoral victory, the Jubilee administration would have loved to consign the opposition to political ignominy in a referendum match right away. Unfortunately, such routing runs the risk of permanently ridding Kenya of a viable opposition and returning it to single party status. It would offend Jubilee’s democratic credentials.
• There is one practical obstacle, though, which is that Mr Odinga has threatened that his Cord would not take part in a contest organised by the IEBC. He must allow the government to accede to his demands to disband the IEBC before talks about a referendum can begin.

Kwamchetsi Makokha's Politically Correct

By Kwamchetsi Makokha

With just 10 days to the third anniversary of promulgating the Constitution of Kenya, 2010, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is calling for amendments.

It appears that Mr Odinga is addicted to punishment by ballot, and the Jubilee administration would be inclined to oblige him were it not concerned about its negative effects on the country.

Nothing could be more unpatriotic, nothing more illegitimate than to employ the provisions in the Constitution in seeking to change it.

Kenya has only recently emerged from an expensive election. At a time when the government is struggling to build the counties; grow the economy; fight crime and end drug abuse, threats to collect a million signatures and launch the process for a referendum is treacherous. It borders on working to destabilise the country, and there should be a law against that.

Fresh from its unquestioned electoral victory, the Jubilee administration would have loved to consign the opposition to political ignominy in a referendum match right away. Unfortunately, such routing runs the risk of permanently ridding Kenya of a viable opposition and returning it to single party status. It would offend Jubilee’s democratic credentials.

It is clear that the quarrel over sharing resources between the national government and county governments was ignited as a red herring for launching a “cruelty of the minority” to respond to the tyranny of numbers.

It would not be surprising if Mr Odinga would insist that the losing side in the referendum be declared the winner, reverting the country to a parliamentary system where a club of politicians pick him to be president.

Yet, that is not how democracy works. Given Mr Odinga’s age, it would be disrespectful to subject him to the tyranny of numbers twice in a year. Were his health to suffer as a result, Jubilee could not possibly escape blame. Further, a defeat in a referendum would rob Mr Odinga of the argument that the tyranny of numbers was a fiction created to cover the malfeasance of electoral and intelligence officials working for partisan interests.

There is one practical obstacle, though, which is that Mr Odinga has threatened that his Cord would not take part in a contest organised by the IEBC. He must allow the government to accede to his demands to disband the IEBC before talks about a referendum can begin.

Thereafter, the voters’ register must be cleaned up to his satisfaction. By the time the country is ready for a referendum, Jubilee would be serving its second term in government.

The counties are swimming in money – having received Sh210 billion, which exceeds the 15 per cent stipulated in the Constitution by one percentage point. That should be more than enough to pay salaries and deliver services in agriculture, health, environmental management, culture, transport, livestock, trade, planning, public works, education, disaster management and public participation.

That is why the Senate should wait for three years – as stated in the Constitution – before changing how money revenue is divided between the national and county governments. No one wants devolution to die prematurely due to excess money supply.

Besides, referenda are so costly, they are more expensive than war. That is why the Kenya Defence Forces had to wait for scraps from the 2010 referendum to launch its Al-Shabaab campaign into Somalia. It should be known that the Jubilee administration is not afraid of going back to the people.

It just cares more how their money is spent, worries about public fatigue with elections, and the danger of killing the opposition in an ill-advised contest.

kwamchetsi@formandcontent.co.ke